Buffalo Bills at Green Bay Packers

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BUFBills6-1 · away
ATWeek 14Sun Dec 13 · 8:20 PM ET
GBPackers5-3 · home
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BUF OFFENSEwhat it does

The red marker slides toward the unit with the better league rank. The farther from the middle, the bigger the rank gap.

GB DEFENSEwhat it allows
Overall
+0.169
1st
EPA / play
BUF offense by 6 places
−0.043
7thallowed
48.8%
4th
Success rate
BUF offense by 15 places · clear edge
44.4%
19thallowed
Passing
+0.284
1st
Pass EPA / play
BUF offense by 9 places
−0.004
10thallowed
48.1%
13th
Pass success rate
Even · same rank
45.3%
13thallowed
11.0%
1st
Explosive pass rate
Strength on strength · 1 place apart
4.1%
2ndallowed
6.0%
13th
Sack rate
Even · same rank
7.2%
13thmade
Rushing
+0.013
3rd
Rush EPA / play
BUF offense by 8 places
−0.108
11thallowed
49.7%
2nd
Run success rate
BUF offense by 25 places · clear edge
42.8%
27thallowed
17.4%
1st
Explosive run rate
BUF offense by 6 places
8.7%
7thallowed
13.3%
2nd
Stuff rate
Strength on strength · 2 places apart
22.4%
4thmade
Turnovers
14.3%
25th
Turnovers
GB defense by 24 places · clear edge
16.7%
T-1sttakeaways
Downs
+0.121
2nd
Early downs EPA (1st–2nd)
Strength on strength · 1 place apart
−0.105
3rdallowed
+0.393
1st
Late downs EPA (3rd–4th)
BUF offense by 23 places · clear edge
+0.137
24thallowed

SHAPE VS SHAPE

BUF offense over GB defense

Explosive pass1st v 2ndPass success13th v 13thSacks13th v 13thTurnovers25th v T-1stStuffs2nd v 4thRun success2nd v 27thExplosive run1st v 7th
  • BUF offense
  • GB defense
  • middle of the league

Of the 7 spokes: offense is 5+ places higher on 2, defense on 1, 4 within 4 places.

Both shapes are drawn by league rank, so the outer ring is 1st on every spoke and the grey ring is the middle of the league. Where the solid shape reaches past the dashed one, the offense ranks higher. Each label shows offense rank v defense rank.

MAIN PLAYERS

Buffalo Bills
QBBUF
Josh Allen
EPA / dropback
+0.30
CPOE
+4.0
Pass yards
1,793
TD–INT
11-5
RBBUF
James Cook
Carries
138
Rush yards
707
EPA / carry
+0.05
Success
50.7%
RBBUF
Ray Davis
Carries
11
Rush yards
42
EPA / carry
−0.06
Success
45.5%
WRBUF
Khalil Shakir
Targets
38
Rec yards
344
TD
1
EPA / target
+0.40
TEBUF
Dalton Kincaid
Targets
35
Rec yards
401
TD
2
EPA / target
+0.46
WRBUF
Keon Coleman
Targets
27
Rec yards
287
TD
3
EPA / target
+0.74
WRBUF
DJ Moore
Targets
27
Rec yards
260
TD
2
EPA / target
+0.30
Green Bay Packers
QBGB
Jordan Love
EPA / dropback
+0.12
CPOE
−1.1
Pass yards
2,246
TD–INT
16-6
RBGB
MarShawn Lloyd
Carries
57
Rush yards
149
EPA / carry
−0.35
Success
31.6%
RBGB
Josh Jacobs
Carries
32
Rush yards
75
EPA / carry
−0.15
Success
37.5%
WRGB
Matthew Golden
Targets
82
Rec yards
619
TD
4
EPA / target
+0.08
WRGB
Christian Watson
Targets
66
Rec yards
708
TD
6
EPA / target
+0.46
TEGB
Tucker Kraft
Targets
49
Rec yards
350
TD
3
EPA / target
+0.44
WRGB
Skyy Moore
Targets
14
Rec yards
35
TD
0
EPA / target
−0.29

Every rank is among all 32 teams in 2026, through Week 8 (BUF has played 7 games, GB 8). A defense is ranked on what its opponents did, so allowing less ranks higher; for sacks, takeaways and stuffs, making more ranks higher.

Tied teams share a place here, as on the team radars (T-7th and T-7th, then 9th). The Team Stats table numbers its rows one by one, so a tied team can carry a different number there.

An edge only compares two season ranks: defense rank minus offense rank. 0 to 4 places apart is called even, 5 to 12 a lean, 13 or more a clear edge. It is not a prediction and not a win probability.

These numbers add up every game’s box score, the same play filter as Team Stats and the team radars. A team’s EPA/play here can differ from the figure in its team page header and on Team Tiers, which count plays differently.

Every rate adds up the team’s box scores for the season. A pass play is any dropback, including sacks and scrambles. QB scrambles of 10+ yards count as explosive runs but not as designed runs, so a team with long scrambles can run high on Explosive run.

Stuff rate leaves out kneel-downs, two-point tries and runs wiped out by a penalty; Run success and Explosive run keep two-point tries and penalty-wiped runs, as the Team Stats page does.

Explosive plays are completions of 20+ yards and runs of 10+ (QB scrambles count as runs). The rush explosive rate divides by designed runs only, so a team with long scrambles can run high.

Sacks ÷ (pass attempts + sacks) · Turnovers ÷ drives · Runs for no gain or a loss ÷ designed runs

Players: the quarterback with the most dropbacks, the two backs with the most carries and the four wide receivers or tight ends with the most targets. A traded player is listed with the team he has played most for. Names open the player page.