Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers

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CHIBears3-1 · away
ATWeek 5Sun Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET
GBPackers2-2 · home
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CHI OFFENSEwhat it does

The red marker slides toward the unit with the better league rank. The farther from the middle, the bigger the rank gap.

GB DEFENSEwhat it allows
Overall
+0.116
8th
EPA / play
CHI offense by 18 places · clear edge
+0.070
26thallowed
48.7%
5th
Success rate
CHI offense by 19 places · clear edge
46.6%
24thallowed
Passing
+0.264
5th
Pass EPA / play
CHI offense by 19 places · clear edge
+0.155
24thallowed
53.7%
3rd
Pass success rate
CHI offense by 23 places · clear edge
49.7%
26thallowed
8.6%
11th
Explosive pass rate
GB defense by 7 places
4.0%
4thallowed
5.0%
13th
Sack rate
Even · 3 places apart
7.9%
10thmade
Rushing
−0.048
10th
Rush EPA / play
CHI offense by 14 places · clear edge
−0.039
24thallowed
43.2%
13th
Run success rate
CHI offense by 10 places
42.7%
23rdallowed
12.3%
7th
Explosive run rate
Even · 4 places apart
9.4%
11thallowed
14.8%
7th
Stuff rate
Even · 2 places apart
20.9%
9thmade
Turnovers
11.9%
T-17th
Turnovers
CHI offense by 5 places
8.9%
22ndtakeaways
Downs
+0.064
9th
Early downs EPA (1st–2nd)
GB defense by 5 places
−0.106
4thallowed
+0.283
4th
Late downs EPA (3rd–4th)
CHI offense by 28 places · clear edge
+0.599
32ndallowed

SHAPE VS SHAPE

CHI offense over GB defense

Explosive pass11th v 4thPass success3rd v 26thSacks13th v 10thTurnoversT-17th v 22ndStuffs7th v 9thRun success13th v 23rdExplosive run7th v 11th
  • CHI offense
  • GB defense
  • ranks 5+ apart
  • middle of the league

Of the 7 spokes: offense is 5+ places higher on 3, defense on 1, 3 within 4 places.

Both shapes are drawn by league rank, so the outer ring is 1st on every spoke and the amber ring is the middle of the league. Where the solid shape reaches past the dashed one, the offense ranks higher. Each label shows offense rank v defense rank.

MAIN PLAYERS

Chicago Bears
QBCHI
Caleb Williams
EPA / dropback
+0.31
CPOE
+6.2
Pass yards
407
TD–INT
2-1
RBCHI
D'Andre Swift
Carries
69
Rush yards
311
EPA / carry
−0.11
Success
44.9%
RBCHI
Kyle Monangai
Carries
60
Rush yards
324
EPA / carry
+0.10
Success
41.7%
WRCHI
Luther Burden III
Targets
29
Rec yards
219
TD
1
EPA / target
0.00
WRCHI
Kalif Raymond
Targets
23
Rec yards
220
TD
1
EPA / target
+0.79
WRCHI
Rome Odunze
Targets
20
Rec yards
233
TD
0
EPA / target
+0.55
TECHI
Colston Loveland
Targets
18
Rec yards
91
TD
0
EPA / target
−0.27
Green Bay Packers
QBGB
Jordan Love
EPA / dropback
+0.03
CPOE
−7.0
Pass yards
1,041
TD–INT
8-3
RBGB
MarShawn Lloyd
Carries
30
Rush yards
81
EPA / carry
−0.42
Success
36.7%
RBGB
Kaleb Johnson
Carries
20
Rush yards
80
EPA / carry
−0.46
Success
35.0%
WRGB
Matthew Golden
Targets
37
Rec yards
274
TD
2
EPA / target
+0.14
WRGB
Christian Watson
Targets
32
Rec yards
331
TD
4
EPA / target
+0.31
TEGB
Tucker Kraft
Targets
24
Rec yards
148
TD
1
EPA / target
+0.15
WRGB
Skyy Moore
Targets
13
Rec yards
35
TD
0
EPA / target
−0.27

Every rank is among all 32 teams in 2026, through Week 5 (CHI has played 4 games, GB 4). A defense is ranked on what its opponents did, so allowing less ranks higher; for sacks, takeaways and stuffs, making more ranks higher.

Tied teams share a place here, as on the team radars (T-7th and T-7th, then 9th). The Team Stats table numbers its rows one by one, so a tied team can carry a different number there.

An edge only compares two season ranks: defense rank minus offense rank. 0 to 4 places apart is called even, 5 to 12 a lean, 13 or more a clear edge. It is not a prediction and not a win probability.

These numbers add up every game’s box score, the same play filter as Team Stats and the team radars. A team’s EPA/play here can differ from the figure in its team page header and on Team Tiers, which count plays differently.

Every rate adds up the team’s box scores for the season. A pass play is any dropback, including sacks and scrambles. QB scrambles of 10+ yards count as explosive runs but not as designed runs, so a team with long scrambles can run high on Explosive run.

Stuff rate leaves out kneel-downs, two-point tries and runs wiped out by a penalty; Run success and Explosive run keep two-point tries and penalty-wiped runs, as the Team Stats page does.

Explosive plays are completions of 20+ yards and runs of 10+ (QB scrambles count as runs). The rush explosive rate divides by designed runs only, so a team with long scrambles can run high.

Sacks ÷ (pass attempts + sacks) · Turnovers ÷ drives · Runs for no gain or a loss ÷ designed runs

Players: the quarterback with the most dropbacks, the two backs with the most carries and the four wide receivers or tight ends with the most targets. A traded player is listed with the team he has played most for. Names open the player page.