New York Jets at Buffalo Bills

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NYJJets2-6 · away
ATWeek 18Sun Jan 10 · 1:00 PM ET
BUFBills6-1 · home
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NYJ OFFENSEwhat it does

The red marker slides toward the unit with the better league rank. The farther from the middle, the bigger the rank gap.

BUF DEFENSEwhat it allows
Overall
+0.043
11th
EPA / play
NYJ offense by 17 places · clear edge
+0.085
28thallowed
45.5%
11th
Success rate
NYJ offense by 18 places · clear edge
47.2%
29thallowed
Passing
+0.145
10th
Pass EPA / play
NYJ offense by 16 places · clear edge
+0.173
26thallowed
48.6%
12th
Pass success rate
NYJ offense by 15 places · clear edge
49.7%
27thallowed
8.2%
9th
Explosive pass rate
NYJ offense by 15 places · clear edge
8.5%
24thallowed
8.8%
26th
Sack rate
Weakness on weakness · same rank
5.3%
26thmade
Rushing
−0.111
19th
Rush EPA / play
Even · same rank
−0.083
19thallowed
40.7%
15th
Run success rate
NYJ offense by 10 places
42.5%
25thallowed
13.4%
8th
Explosive run rate
NYJ offense by 13 places · clear edge
11.4%
21stallowed
21.8%
29th
Stuff rate
BUF defense by 22 places · clear edge
22.0%
7thmade
Turnovers
7.2%
8th
Turnovers
NYJ offense by 6 places
11.8%
14thtakeaways
Downs
+0.032
16th
Early downs EPA (1st–2nd)
NYJ offense by 13 places · clear edge
+0.082
29thallowed
+0.070
15th
Late downs EPA (3rd–4th)
NYJ offense by 5 places
+0.094
20thallowed

SHAPE VS SHAPE

NYJ offense over BUF defense

Explosive pass9th v 24thPass success12th v 27thSacks26th v 26thTurnovers8th v 14thStuffs29th v 7thRun success15th v 25thExplosive run8th v 21st
  • NYJ offense
  • BUF defense
  • middle of the league

Of the 7 spokes: offense is 5+ places higher on 5, defense on 1, 1 within 4 places.

Both shapes are drawn by league rank, so the outer ring is 1st on every spoke and the amber ring is the middle of the league. Where the solid shape reaches past the dashed one, the offense ranks higher. Each label shows offense rank v defense rank.

MAIN PLAYERS

New York Jets
QBNYJ
Geno Smith
EPA / dropback
+0.13
CPOE
+6.0
Pass yards
1,913
TD–INT
12-3
RBNYJ
Braelon Allen
Carries
112
Rush yards
565
EPA / carry
+0.01
Success
43.8%
RBNYJ
Breece Hall
Carries
51
Rush yards
163
EPA / carry
−0.17
Success
33.3%
WRNYJ
Garrett Wilson
Targets
63
Rec yards
527
TD
3
EPA / target
+0.41
WRNYJ
Adonai Mitchell
Targets
27
Rec yards
265
TD
1
EPA / target
+0.71
TENYJ
Kenyon Sadiq
Targets
27
Rec yards
186
TD
1
EPA / target
−0.22
TENYJ
Mason Taylor
Targets
23
Rec yards
136
TD
2
EPA / target
+0.17
Buffalo Bills
QBBUF
Josh Allen
EPA / dropback
+0.30
CPOE
+4.0
Pass yards
1,793
TD–INT
11-5
RBBUF
James Cook
Carries
138
Rush yards
707
EPA / carry
+0.05
Success
50.7%
RBBUF
Ray Davis
Carries
11
Rush yards
42
EPA / carry
−0.06
Success
45.5%
WRBUF
Khalil Shakir
Targets
38
Rec yards
344
TD
1
EPA / target
+0.40
TEBUF
Dalton Kincaid
Targets
35
Rec yards
401
TD
2
EPA / target
+0.46
WRBUF
Keon Coleman
Targets
27
Rec yards
287
TD
3
EPA / target
+0.74
WRBUF
DJ Moore
Targets
27
Rec yards
260
TD
2
EPA / target
+0.30

Every rank is among all 32 teams in 2026, through Week 8 (NYJ has played 8 games, BUF 7). A defense is ranked on what its opponents did, so allowing less ranks higher; for sacks, takeaways and stuffs, making more ranks higher.

Tied teams share a place here, as on the team radars (T-7th and T-7th, then 9th). The Team Stats table numbers its rows one by one, so a tied team can carry a different number there.

An edge only compares two season ranks: defense rank minus offense rank. 0 to 4 places apart is called even, 5 to 12 a lean, 13 or more a clear edge. It is not a prediction and not a win probability.

These numbers add up every game’s box score, the same play filter as Team Stats and the team radars. A team’s EPA/play here can differ from the figure in its team page header and on Team Tiers, which count plays differently.

Every rate adds up the team’s box scores for the season. A pass play is any dropback, including sacks and scrambles. QB scrambles of 10+ yards count as explosive runs but not as designed runs, so a team with long scrambles can run high on Explosive run.

Stuff rate leaves out kneel-downs, two-point tries and runs wiped out by a penalty; Run success and Explosive run keep two-point tries and penalty-wiped runs, as the Team Stats page does.

Explosive plays are completions of 20+ yards and runs of 10+ (QB scrambles count as runs). The rush explosive rate divides by designed runs only, so a team with long scrambles can run high.

Sacks ÷ (pass attempts + sacks) · Turnovers ÷ drives · Runs for no gain or a loss ÷ designed runs

Players: the quarterback with the most dropbacks, the two backs with the most carries and the four wide receivers or tight ends with the most targets. A traded player is listed with the team he has played most for. Names open the player page.