Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos

← This week’s matchups
BUFBills6-1 · away
ATWeek 16Fri Dec 25 · 4:30 PM ET
DENBroncos6-2 · home
Share this matchup
Open share card →
BUF OFFENSEwhat it does

The red marker slides toward the unit with the better league rank. The farther from the middle, the bigger the rank gap.

DEN DEFENSEwhat it allows
Overall
+0.169
1st
EPA / play
BUF offense by 10 places
−0.024
11thallowed
48.8%
4th
Success rate
Strength on strength · same rank
41.0%
4thallowed
Passing
+0.284
1st
Pass EPA / play
BUF offense by 7 places
−0.010
8thallowed
48.1%
13th
Pass success rate
DEN defense by 6 places
43.5%
7thallowed
11.0%
1st
Explosive pass rate
BUF offense by 8 places
6.1%
9thallowed
6.0%
13th
Sack rate
Even · 1 place apart
7.0%
14thmade
Rushing
+0.013
3rd
Rush EPA / play
BUF offense by 23 places · clear edge
−0.047
26thallowed
49.7%
2nd
Run success rate
BUF offense by 7 places
36.8%
9thallowed
17.4%
1st
Explosive run rate
BUF offense by 25 places · clear edge
13.2%
26thallowed
13.3%
2nd
Stuff rate
BUF offense by 14 places · clear edge
18.0%
16thmade
Turnovers
14.3%
25th
Turnovers
DEN defense by 6 places
11.0%
19thtakeaways
Downs
+0.121
2nd
Early downs EPA (1st–2nd)
BUF offense by 11 places
+0.001
13thallowed
+0.393
1st
Late downs EPA (3rd–4th)
BUF offense by 7 places
−0.110
8thallowed

SHAPE VS SHAPE

BUF offense over DEN defense

Explosive pass1st v 9thPass success13th v 7thSacks13th v 14thTurnovers25th v 19thStuffs2nd v 16thRun success2nd v 9thExplosive run1st v 26th
  • BUF offense
  • DEN defense
  • middle of the league

Of the 7 spokes: offense is 5+ places higher on 4, defense on 2, 1 within 4 places.

Both shapes are drawn by league rank, so the outer ring is 1st on every spoke and the grey ring is the middle of the league. Where the solid shape reaches past the dashed one, the offense ranks higher. Each label shows offense rank v defense rank.

MAIN PLAYERS

Buffalo Bills
QBBUF
Josh Allen
EPA / dropback
+0.30
CPOE
+4.0
Pass yards
1,793
TD–INT
11-5
RBBUF
James Cook
Carries
138
Rush yards
707
EPA / carry
+0.05
Success
50.7%
RBBUF
Ray Davis
Carries
11
Rush yards
42
EPA / carry
−0.06
Success
45.5%
WRBUF
Khalil Shakir
Targets
38
Rec yards
344
TD
1
EPA / target
+0.40
TEBUF
Dalton Kincaid
Targets
35
Rec yards
401
TD
2
EPA / target
+0.46
WRBUF
Keon Coleman
Targets
27
Rec yards
287
TD
3
EPA / target
+0.74
WRBUF
DJ Moore
Targets
27
Rec yards
260
TD
2
EPA / target
+0.30
Denver Broncos
QBDEN
Bo Nix
EPA / dropback
−0.02
CPOE
−2.6
Pass yards
1,493
TD–INT
9-3
RBDEN
J.K. Dobbins
Carries
94
Rush yards
306
EPA / carry
−0.19
Success
28.7%
RBDEN
Jonah Coleman
Carries
30
Rush yards
134
EPA / carry
+0.08
Success
50.0%
WRDEN
Jaylen Waddle
Targets
51
Rec yards
315
TD
2
EPA / target
+0.04
WRDEN
Courtland Sutton
Targets
37
Rec yards
221
TD
1
EPA / target
−0.14
TEDEN
Evan Engram
Targets
25
Rec yards
136
TD
1
EPA / target
−0.08
WRDEN
Marvin Mims Jr.
Targets
14
Rec yards
92
TD
0
EPA / target
+0.01

Every rank is among all 32 teams in 2026, through Week 8 (BUF has played 7 games, DEN 8). A defense is ranked on what its opponents did, so allowing less ranks higher; for sacks, takeaways and stuffs, making more ranks higher.

Tied teams share a place here, as on the team radars (T-7th and T-7th, then 9th). The Team Stats table numbers its rows one by one, so a tied team can carry a different number there.

An edge only compares two season ranks: defense rank minus offense rank. 0 to 4 places apart is called even, 5 to 12 a lean, 13 or more a clear edge. It is not a prediction and not a win probability.

These numbers add up every game’s box score, the same play filter as Team Stats and the team radars. A team’s EPA/play here can differ from the figure in its team page header and on Team Tiers, which count plays differently.

Every rate adds up the team’s box scores for the season. A pass play is any dropback, including sacks and scrambles. QB scrambles of 10+ yards count as explosive runs but not as designed runs, so a team with long scrambles can run high on Explosive run.

Stuff rate leaves out kneel-downs, two-point tries and runs wiped out by a penalty; Run success and Explosive run keep two-point tries and penalty-wiped runs, as the Team Stats page does.

Explosive plays are completions of 20+ yards and runs of 10+ (QB scrambles count as runs). The rush explosive rate divides by designed runs only, so a team with long scrambles can run high.

Sacks ÷ (pass attempts + sacks) · Turnovers ÷ drives · Runs for no gain or a loss ÷ designed runs

Players: the quarterback with the most dropbacks, the two backs with the most carries and the four wide receivers or tight ends with the most targets. A traded player is listed with the team he has played most for. Names open the player page.