Denver Broncos at New England Patriots

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DENBroncos6-2 · away
ATWeek 17Sun Jan 3 · 1:00 PM ET
NEPatriots5-3 · home
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DEN OFFENSEwhat it does

The red marker slides toward the unit with the better league rank. The farther from the middle, the bigger the rank gap.

NE DEFENSEwhat it allows
Overall
−0.009
20th
EPA / play
Even · 4 places apart
+0.007
16thallowed
39.3%
29th
Success rate
NE defense by 15 places · clear edge
43.4%
14thallowed
Passing
+0.042
20th
Pass EPA / play
Even · 4 places apart
+0.074
16thallowed
40.3%
29th
Pass success rate
NE defense by 8 places
46.9%
21stallowed
6.4%
24th
Explosive pass rate
Even · 3 places apart
8.1%
21stallowed
3.8%
6th
Sack rate
Strength on strength · 1 place apart
7.9%
5thmade
Rushing
−0.089
15th
Rush EPA / play
Even · 3 places apart
−0.104
12thallowed
37.6%
20th
Run success rate
NE defense by 9 places
37.6%
11thallowed
7.4%
28th
Explosive run rate
NE defense by 18 places · clear edge
9.7%
10thallowed
15.0%
5th
Stuff rate
DEN offense by 17 places · clear edge
16.7%
T-22ndmade
Turnovers
5.6%
5th
Turnovers
DEN offense by 17 places · clear edge
9.4%
T-22ndtakeaways
Downs
+0.041
12th
Early downs EPA (1st–2nd)
Even · 2 places apart
+0.005
14thallowed
−0.211
30th
Late downs EPA (3rd–4th)
NE defense by 15 places · clear edge
+0.029
15thallowed

SHAPE VS SHAPE

DEN offense over NE defense

Explosive pass24th v 21stPass success29th v 21stSacks6th v 5thTurnovers5th v T-22ndStuffs5th v T-22ndRun success20th v 11thExplosive run28th v 10th
  • DEN offense
  • NE defense
  • middle of the league

Of the 7 spokes: offense is 5+ places higher on 2, defense on 3, 2 within 4 places.

Both shapes are drawn by league rank, so the outer ring is 1st on every spoke and the grey ring is the middle of the league. Where the solid shape reaches past the dashed one, the offense ranks higher. Each label shows offense rank v defense rank.

MAIN PLAYERS

Denver Broncos
QBDEN
Bo Nix
EPA / dropback
−0.02
CPOE
−2.6
Pass yards
1,493
TD–INT
9-3
RBDEN
J.K. Dobbins
Carries
94
Rush yards
306
EPA / carry
−0.19
Success
28.7%
RBDEN
Jonah Coleman
Carries
30
Rush yards
134
EPA / carry
+0.08
Success
50.0%
WRDEN
Jaylen Waddle
Targets
51
Rec yards
315
TD
2
EPA / target
+0.04
WRDEN
Courtland Sutton
Targets
37
Rec yards
221
TD
1
EPA / target
−0.14
TEDEN
Evan Engram
Targets
25
Rec yards
136
TD
1
EPA / target
−0.08
WRDEN
Marvin Mims Jr.
Targets
14
Rec yards
92
TD
0
EPA / target
+0.01
New England Patriots
QBNE
Drake Maye
EPA / dropback
+0.21
CPOE
+7.3
Pass yards
1,983
TD–INT
15-8
RBNE
Rhamondre Stevenson
Carries
96
Rush yards
367
EPA / carry
−0.05
Success
39.6%
RBNE
TreVeyon Henderson
Carries
52
Rush yards
203
EPA / carry
−0.25
Success
32.7%
WRNE
DeMario Douglas
Targets
37
Rec yards
332
TD
4
EPA / target
+0.57
TENE
Hunter Henry
Targets
34
Rec yards
326
TD
2
EPA / target
+0.55
WRNE
Romeo Doubs
Targets
24
Rec yards
261
TD
3
EPA / target
+0.52
WRNE
Mack Hollins
Targets
20
Rec yards
209
TD
0
EPA / target
+0.64

Every rank is among all 32 teams in 2026, through Week 8 (DEN has played 8 games, NE 8). A defense is ranked on what its opponents did, so allowing less ranks higher; for sacks, takeaways and stuffs, making more ranks higher.

Tied teams share a place here, as on the team radars (T-7th and T-7th, then 9th). The Team Stats table numbers its rows one by one, so a tied team can carry a different number there.

An edge only compares two season ranks: defense rank minus offense rank. 0 to 4 places apart is called even, 5 to 12 a lean, 13 or more a clear edge. It is not a prediction and not a win probability.

These numbers add up every game’s box score, the same play filter as Team Stats and the team radars. A team’s EPA/play here can differ from the figure in its team page header and on Team Tiers, which count plays differently.

Every rate adds up the team’s box scores for the season. A pass play is any dropback, including sacks and scrambles. QB scrambles of 10+ yards count as explosive runs but not as designed runs, so a team with long scrambles can run high on Explosive run.

Stuff rate leaves out kneel-downs, two-point tries and runs wiped out by a penalty; Run success and Explosive run keep two-point tries and penalty-wiped runs, as the Team Stats page does.

Explosive plays are completions of 20+ yards and runs of 10+ (QB scrambles count as runs). The rush explosive rate divides by designed runs only, so a team with long scrambles can run high.

Sacks ÷ (pass attempts + sacks) · Turnovers ÷ drives · Runs for no gain or a loss ÷ designed runs

Players: the quarterback with the most dropbacks, the two backs with the most carries and the four wide receivers or tight ends with the most targets. A traded player is listed with the team he has played most for. Names open the player page.