Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons

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TBBuccaneers3-5 · away
ATWeek 16Sun Dec 27 · 1:00 PM ET
ATLFalcons3-5 · home
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TB OFFENSEwhat it does

The red marker slides toward the unit with the better league rank. The farther from the middle, the bigger the rank gap.

ATL DEFENSEwhat it allows
Overall
−0.091
28th
EPA / play
ATL defense by 18 places · clear edge
−0.038
10thallowed
41.1%
26th
Success rate
ATL defense by 13 places · clear edge
43.3%
13thallowed
Passing
−0.151
30th
Pass EPA / play
ATL defense by 19 places · clear edge
+0.003
11thallowed
38.8%
30th
Pass success rate
ATL defense by 21 places · clear edge
44.1%
9thallowed
4.7%
30th
Explosive pass rate
ATL defense by 19 places · clear edge
6.9%
11thallowed
10.0%
30th
Sack rate
ATL defense by 10 places
5.9%
20thmade
Rushing
−0.023
7th
Rush EPA / play
TB offense by 6 places
−0.102
13thallowed
43.8%
7th
Run success rate
TB offense by 15 places · clear edge
42.0%
22ndallowed
14.6%
6th
Explosive run rate
TB offense by 14 places · clear edge
11.3%
20thallowed
15.4%
6th
Stuff rate
TB offense by 11 places
17.6%
17thmade
Turnovers
13.2%
20th
Turnovers
Even · 2 places apart
11.1%
18thtakeaways
Downs
−0.056
23rd
Early downs EPA (1st–2nd)
ATL defense by 15 places · clear edge
−0.062
8thallowed
−0.195
29th
Late downs EPA (3rd–4th)
ATL defense by 13 places · clear edge
+0.038
16thallowed

SHAPE VS SHAPE

TB offense over ATL defense

Explosive pass30th v 11thPass success30th v 9thSacks30th v 20thTurnovers20th v 18thStuffs6th v 17thRun success7th v 22ndExplosive run6th v 20th
  • TB offense
  • ATL defense
  • middle of the league

Of the 7 spokes: offense is 5+ places higher on 3, defense on 3, 1 within 4 places.

Both shapes are drawn by league rank, so the outer ring is 1st on every spoke and the amber ring is the middle of the league. Where the solid shape reaches past the dashed one, the offense ranks higher. Each label shows offense rank v defense rank.

MAIN PLAYERS

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
QBTB
Baker Mayfield
EPA / dropback
−0.23
CPOE
−0.9
Pass yards
679
TD–INT
3-2
RBTB
Bucky Irving
Carries
147
Rush yards
728
EPA / carry
0.00
Success
42.2%
RBTB
Kenny Gainwell
Carries
58
Rush yards
289
EPA / carry
+0.01
Success
46.6%
WRTB
Emeka Egbuka
Targets
49
Rec yards
240
TD
2
EPA / target
−0.26
WRTB
Chris Godwin Jr.
Targets
35
Rec yards
243
TD
0
EPA / target
+0.19
TETB
Cade Otton
Targets
30
Rec yards
186
TD
0
EPA / target
+0.16
WRTB
Ted Hurst III
Targets
24
Rec yards
168
TD
1
EPA / target
−0.01
Atlanta Falcons
QBATL
Michael Penix Jr.
EPA / dropback
0.00
CPOE
−4.3
Pass yards
1,282
TD–INT
9-5
RBATL
Bijan Robinson
Carries
150
Rush yards
780
EPA / carry
−0.03
Success
44.7%
RBATL
Brian Robinson
Carries
53
Rush yards
211
EPA / carry
+0.05
Success
41.5%
WRATL
Drake London
Targets
62
Rec yards
624
TD
1
EPA / target
+0.38
TEATL
Kyle Pitts
Targets
32
Rec yards
197
TD
4
EPA / target
+0.06
WRATL
Jahan Dotson
Targets
30
Rec yards
337
TD
2
EPA / target
−0.18
WRATL
Olamide Zaccheaus
Targets
13
Rec yards
21
TD
0
EPA / target
−0.96

Every rank is among all 32 teams in 2026, through Week 8 (TB has played 8 games, ATL 8). A defense is ranked on what its opponents did, so allowing less ranks higher; for sacks, takeaways and stuffs, making more ranks higher.

Tied teams share a place here, as on the team radars (T-7th and T-7th, then 9th). The Team Stats table numbers its rows one by one, so a tied team can carry a different number there.

An edge only compares two season ranks: defense rank minus offense rank. 0 to 4 places apart is called even, 5 to 12 a lean, 13 or more a clear edge. It is not a prediction and not a win probability.

These numbers add up every game’s box score, the same play filter as Team Stats and the team radars. A team’s EPA/play here can differ from the figure in its team page header and on Team Tiers, which count plays differently.

Every rate adds up the team’s box scores for the season. A pass play is any dropback, including sacks and scrambles. QB scrambles of 10+ yards count as explosive runs but not as designed runs, so a team with long scrambles can run high on Explosive run.

Stuff rate leaves out kneel-downs, two-point tries and runs wiped out by a penalty; Run success and Explosive run keep two-point tries and penalty-wiped runs, as the Team Stats page does.

Explosive plays are completions of 20+ yards and runs of 10+ (QB scrambles count as runs). The rush explosive rate divides by designed runs only, so a team with long scrambles can run high.

Sacks ÷ (pass attempts + sacks) · Turnovers ÷ drives · Runs for no gain or a loss ÷ designed runs

Players: the quarterback with the most dropbacks, the two backs with the most carries and the four wide receivers or tight ends with the most targets. A traded player is listed with the team he has played most for. Names open the player page.