Atlanta Falcons at Washington Commanders

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ATLFalcons3-5 · away
ATWeek 15Sun Dec 20 · 1:00 PM ET
WASCommanders2-4-1 · home
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ATL OFFENSEwhat it does

The red marker slides toward the unit with the better league rank. The farther from the middle, the bigger the rank gap.

WAS DEFENSEwhat it allows
Overall
−0.080
27th
EPA / play
WAS defense by 7 places
+0.033
20thallowed
43.2%
16th
Success rate
ATL offense by 11 places
46.5%
27thallowed
Passing
−0.124
29th
Pass EPA / play
WAS defense by 8 places
+0.100
21stallowed
42.9%
24th
Pass success rate
Even · 1 place apart
47.5%
23rdallowed
7.9%
13th
Explosive pass rate
Even · 3 places apart
7.6%
16thallowed
6.6%
19th
Sack rate
Even · same rank
5.9%
19thmade
Rushing
−0.027
8th
Rush EPA / play
ATL offense by 8 places
−0.096
16thallowed
43.7%
8th
Run success rate
ATL offense by 23 places · clear edge
44.6%
31stallowed
9.9%
19th
Explosive run rate
WAS defense by 15 places · clear edge
8.3%
4thallowed
16.1%
11th
Stuff rate
Even · 2 places apart
18.7%
13thmade
Turnovers
16.5%
28th
Turnovers
WAS defense by 18 places · clear edge
12.5%
T-10thtakeaways
Downs
−0.042
22nd
Early downs EPA (1st–2nd)
WAS defense by 12 places
−0.035
10thallowed
−0.237
31st
Late downs EPA (3rd–4th)
Weakness on weakness · 3 places apart
+0.252
28thallowed

SHAPE VS SHAPE

ATL offense over WAS defense

Explosive pass13th v 16thPass success24th v 23rdSacks19th v 19thTurnovers28th v T-10thStuffs11th v 13thRun success8th v 31stExplosive run19th v 4th
  • ATL offense
  • WAS defense
  • middle of the league

Of the 7 spokes: offense is 5+ places higher on 1, defense on 2, 4 within 4 places.

Both shapes are drawn by league rank, so the outer ring is 1st on every spoke and the grey ring is the middle of the league. Where the solid shape reaches past the dashed one, the offense ranks higher. Each label shows offense rank v defense rank.

MAIN PLAYERS

Atlanta Falcons
QBATL
Michael Penix Jr.
EPA / dropback
0.00
CPOE
−4.3
Pass yards
1,282
TD–INT
9-5
RBATL
Bijan Robinson
Carries
150
Rush yards
780
EPA / carry
−0.03
Success
44.7%
RBATL
Brian Robinson
Carries
53
Rush yards
211
EPA / carry
+0.05
Success
41.5%
WRATL
Drake London
Targets
62
Rec yards
624
TD
1
EPA / target
+0.38
TEATL
Kyle Pitts
Targets
32
Rec yards
197
TD
4
EPA / target
+0.06
WRATL
Jahan Dotson
Targets
30
Rec yards
337
TD
2
EPA / target
−0.18
WRATL
Olamide Zaccheaus
Targets
13
Rec yards
21
TD
0
EPA / target
−0.96
Washington Commanders
QBWAS
Jayden Daniels
EPA / dropback
+0.12
CPOE
+5.6
Pass yards
976
TD–INT
6-0
RBWAS
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
Carries
67
Rush yards
239
EPA / carry
−0.10
Success
35.8%
RBWAS
Rachaad White
Carries
47
Rush yards
200
EPA / carry
−0.03
Success
42.6%
WRWAS
Stefon Diggs
Targets
44
Rec yards
252
TD
5
EPA / target
+0.23
WRWAS
Antonio Williams
Targets
33
Rec yards
259
TD
1
EPA / target
+0.31
WRWAS
Terry McLaurin
Targets
27
Rec yards
230
TD
1
EPA / target
+0.48
TEWAS
Chig Okonkwo
Targets
24
Rec yards
182
TD
0
EPA / target
+0.06

Every rank is among all 32 teams in 2026, through Week 8 (ATL has played 8 games, WAS 7). A defense is ranked on what its opponents did, so allowing less ranks higher; for sacks, takeaways and stuffs, making more ranks higher.

Tied teams share a place here, as on the team radars (T-7th and T-7th, then 9th). The Team Stats table numbers its rows one by one, so a tied team can carry a different number there.

An edge only compares two season ranks: defense rank minus offense rank. 0 to 4 places apart is called even, 5 to 12 a lean, 13 or more a clear edge. It is not a prediction and not a win probability.

These numbers add up every game’s box score, the same play filter as Team Stats and the team radars. A team’s EPA/play here can differ from the figure in its team page header and on Team Tiers, which count plays differently.

Every rate adds up the team’s box scores for the season. A pass play is any dropback, including sacks and scrambles. QB scrambles of 10+ yards count as explosive runs but not as designed runs, so a team with long scrambles can run high on Explosive run.

Stuff rate leaves out kneel-downs, two-point tries and runs wiped out by a penalty; Run success and Explosive run keep two-point tries and penalty-wiped runs, as the Team Stats page does.

Explosive plays are completions of 20+ yards and runs of 10+ (QB scrambles count as runs). The rush explosive rate divides by designed runs only, so a team with long scrambles can run high.

Sacks ÷ (pass attempts + sacks) · Turnovers ÷ drives · Runs for no gain or a loss ÷ designed runs

Players: the quarterback with the most dropbacks, the two backs with the most carries and the four wide receivers or tight ends with the most targets. A traded player is listed with the team he has played most for. Names open the player page.