New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons

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NOSaints2-5 · away
ATWeek 17Sun Jan 3 · 1:00 PM ET
ATLFalcons3-5 · home
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NO OFFENSEwhat it does

The red marker slides toward the unit with the better league rank. The farther from the middle, the bigger the rank gap.

ATL DEFENSEwhat it allows
Overall
−0.030
22nd
EPA / play
ATL defense by 12 places
−0.038
10thallowed
41.9%
23rd
Success rate
ATL defense by 10 places
43.3%
13thallowed
Passing
+0.038
21st
Pass EPA / play
ATL defense by 10 places
+0.003
11thallowed
46.8%
16th
Pass success rate
ATL defense by 7 places
44.1%
9thallowed
5.7%
27th
Explosive pass rate
ATL defense by 16 places · clear edge
6.9%
11thallowed
5.2%
10th
Sack rate
NO offense by 10 places
5.9%
20thmade
Rushing
−0.162
24th
Rush EPA / play
ATL defense by 11 places
−0.102
13thallowed
32.5%
30th
Run success rate
ATL defense by 8 places
42.0%
22ndallowed
7.4%
29th
Explosive run rate
ATL defense by 9 places
11.3%
20thallowed
20.0%
23rd
Stuff rate
ATL defense by 6 places
17.6%
17thmade
Turnovers
17.3%
30th
Turnovers
ATL defense by 12 places
11.1%
18thtakeaways
Downs
−0.102
28th
Early downs EPA (1st–2nd)
ATL defense by 20 places · clear edge
−0.062
8thallowed
+0.186
8th
Late downs EPA (3rd–4th)
NO offense by 8 places
+0.038
16thallowed

SHAPE VS SHAPE

NO offense over ATL defense

Explosive pass27th v 11thPass success16th v 9thSacks10th v 20thTurnovers30th v 18thStuffs23rd v 17thRun success30th v 22ndExplosive run29th v 20th
  • NO offense
  • ATL defense
  • middle of the league

Of the 7 spokes: offense is 5+ places higher on 1, defense on 6, 0 within 4 places.

Both shapes are drawn by league rank, so the outer ring is 1st on every spoke and the grey ring is the middle of the league. Where the solid shape reaches past the dashed one, the offense ranks higher. Each label shows offense rank v defense rank.

MAIN PLAYERS

New Orleans Saints
QBNO
Tyler Shough
EPA / dropback
+0.03
CPOE
−0.1
Pass yards
1,721
TD–INT
13-6
RBNO
Kendre Miller
Carries
57
Rush yards
159
EPA / carry
−0.29
Success
24.6%
RBNO
Alvin Kamara
Carries
41
Rush yards
125
EPA / carry
−0.14
Success
26.8%
WRNO
Chris Olave
Targets
71
Rec yards
636
TD
2
EPA / target
+0.53
WRNO
Devaughn Vele
Targets
48
Rec yards
348
TD
3
EPA / target
+0.46
TENO
Juwan Johnson
Targets
37
Rec yards
255
TD
3
EPA / target
+0.20
WRNO
Bryce Lance
Targets
22
Rec yards
78
TD
1
EPA / target
−0.55
Atlanta Falcons
QBATL
Michael Penix Jr.
EPA / dropback
0.00
CPOE
−4.3
Pass yards
1,282
TD–INT
9-5
RBATL
Bijan Robinson
Carries
150
Rush yards
780
EPA / carry
−0.03
Success
44.7%
RBATL
Brian Robinson
Carries
53
Rush yards
211
EPA / carry
+0.05
Success
41.5%
WRATL
Drake London
Targets
62
Rec yards
624
TD
1
EPA / target
+0.38
TEATL
Kyle Pitts
Targets
32
Rec yards
197
TD
4
EPA / target
+0.06
WRATL
Jahan Dotson
Targets
30
Rec yards
337
TD
2
EPA / target
−0.18
WRATL
Olamide Zaccheaus
Targets
13
Rec yards
21
TD
0
EPA / target
−0.96

Every rank is among all 32 teams in 2026, through Week 8 (NO has played 7 games, ATL 8). A defense is ranked on what its opponents did, so allowing less ranks higher; for sacks, takeaways and stuffs, making more ranks higher.

Tied teams share a place here, as on the team radars (T-7th and T-7th, then 9th). The Team Stats table numbers its rows one by one, so a tied team can carry a different number there.

An edge only compares two season ranks: defense rank minus offense rank. 0 to 4 places apart is called even, 5 to 12 a lean, 13 or more a clear edge. It is not a prediction and not a win probability.

These numbers add up every game’s box score, the same play filter as Team Stats and the team radars. A team’s EPA/play here can differ from the figure in its team page header and on Team Tiers, which count plays differently.

Every rate adds up the team’s box scores for the season. A pass play is any dropback, including sacks and scrambles. QB scrambles of 10+ yards count as explosive runs but not as designed runs, so a team with long scrambles can run high on Explosive run.

Stuff rate leaves out kneel-downs, two-point tries and runs wiped out by a penalty; Run success and Explosive run keep two-point tries and penalty-wiped runs, as the Team Stats page does.

Explosive plays are completions of 20+ yards and runs of 10+ (QB scrambles count as runs). The rush explosive rate divides by designed runs only, so a team with long scrambles can run high.

Sacks ÷ (pass attempts + sacks) · Turnovers ÷ drives · Runs for no gain or a loss ÷ designed runs

Players: the quarterback with the most dropbacks, the two backs with the most carries and the four wide receivers or tight ends with the most targets. A traded player is listed with the team he has played most for. Names open the player page.